fooled by randomness review

But, it does get kind of tiresome to be told for the 5th or 10th time how unimpressed by wealth he is. The concepts in this book are invaluable for those developing critical thinking skills. Review of and thoughs about “Fooled by Randomness” (Nassim Nicholas Taleb) Emil O. W. Kirkegaard 6. Fooled by Randomness, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb is about, “The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets.” So here’s what you’re in for: With Fooled by Randomness you get an explicit look at luck; and specifically, how we perceive it in our personal and professional lives. In fact, he is clearly impresse. Renowned statistician George Box once said, All models are wrong, but some are useful. I was happy to read the section on Tversky and Kahneman, but I find their work infinitely more interesting and readable than his summary, and you are spared the normative commentary. First, it delivers the fatal bullet rather infrequently, like a revolver that would have hundreds, even thousands of chambers instead of six. I don't really disagree with his criticisms of MBAs, economists, traders, journalists, etc., but I also don't think anything he says is especially revealing of insightful for most of us who aren't involved in the trading world. And that I believe is the problem. 
, “Heroes are heroes because they are heroic in behavior, not because they won or lost.”, “Reality is far more vicious than Russian roulette. This book is a lot of painful reading for little reward, as there was nothing truly remarkable or revelatory about Taleb's insights. The 21 year old, who just moved out from home, and spends a lot of her time deliberating what to wear and eat, the 59 year old writer, who’s not sure whether the next page is even worth writing, and anyone who has someone with a bad illness in their family. “Fragile” means if you hit something might break. The five-book series, "Incerto", by Nassim Nicholas Taleb has had a profound impact on how I think about the world. These books explained it well, about the role of chance/probability and randomness, in our lives. Nassim Nicholas Taleb spent 21 years as a risk taker (quantitative trader) before becoming a flaneur and researcher in philosophical, mathematical and (mostly) practical problems with probability. I’ve just checked and most of the other reviews of this book do pretty much what I thought they would do. I assigned this to a class, with a warning that Taleb can be an insufferable, arrogant, jerk; but he was not going to be the last one they deal with so they have to get past that. everyone. A nice thesis (humans are unable to correctly assess risk and probability and therefore fall into all kinds of traps) wrapped in pompous and befuddled writing. And, with that system, things gradually fit together in a way that enhances cognition. This is a book by a trader with an intellectual streak -- although he might say he’s an intellectual with a trading streak. Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. If you're really interested in randomness, I would recommend The Drunkard's Walk. Having run into Nassim Taleb's later work "The Black Swan", last year (see review), I choose the new edition of his earlier contribution, "Fooled by Randomness" as one summer 2012's special reads. Let us know what’s wrong with this preview of, Published It explained things that I sort of felt existed but unable to articulate. His main idea is that probability is not mere computation of the odds - it is the acceptance of the lack of certainty in our knowledge and developing methods for dealing with our ignorance. "The Black Swan" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (and basically the others in the series like "Fooled by Randomness" and "Antifragile") are also my favourites. But he neither uses actual events or statistics. The author’s most famous exclamation is that the 40 years of investment success experienced by Warren Buffett, "may be by chance." Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill—the markets— Fooled by Randomness is an irreverent, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in our lives. Probabilities are misconstrued as certainties. This book is a lot of painful reading for little reward, as there was nothing truly remarkable or revelatory about Taleb's insights. Who should I read? Renowned statistician George Box once said, “All models are wrong, but some are useful.” The author of, You can't learn anything from this book; it's just a rant. Welcome back. Most of what can be said of this book has already been said by other reviewers on GoodReads, so I will just briefly recap here: he is incredibly unlikeable, and infuses the book with anecdote and a general disdain for most of humanity, while exemplifying many of the characteristics he rails against. The author’s most famous exclamation is that the 40 years of investment success experienced by Warren Buffett, "may be by chance." (Source). He seems to go around in circles repeating his ideas and thoughts, coming back to the same points, pulling in unrelated anecdotes while already inside one, leaving thoughts hanging without any form of closure, and generally ensuring you end up doing exactly what he says you shouldn't be doing: making sense of random noise. (Source), Art De Vany I used [this book] is a class I taught on the economics of uncertainty. With recommendations from Malcolm Gladwell, and Ev Williams. Ranked #3 in Business Statistics, Ranked #4 in Macroeconomics — see more rankings. It was first published in 2001. On Goodreads, it has a rating of 4.07 from 1,968 reviews. And because of that effectiveness (many of my students stated they never read anything book length voluntarily), the book keeps the readers attention (if the tone does not drive them away!) Nietzsche was certainly on to something; it’s hard to av. Who would I recommend the Fooled By Randomness summary to? I’ve come to realize that some people find Nassim Taleb’s arrogance quite repugnant, but, personally, I find it rather charming. All in all, I am really puzzled by the popularity of this book, and I would strongly recommend against bothering with this one. The author continually pontificates that random events happen in life. Fooled by Randomness is one of that select group of books that changes your mind entirely. The book "Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb was published in 2001. These books explained it well, about the role of chance/probability and randomness, in our lives. The author says right at the beginning in his 20+ page preface that the book is intentionally left unstructured so that it may resemble the flow of his thoughts as and when they popped up. He continues down this train of thought until he reaches the conclusion that the ultimate success and failure of some people can primarily be explained by luck. See 1 question about Fooled by Randomness…, Skin in the Game: The Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Incorrect Page Count: ISBN13: 9781400067930, Astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson Shares His Reading Recommendations. It remains a fascinating book nonetheless. Most of what can be said of this book has already been said by other reviewers on GoodReads, so I will just briefly recap here: he is incredibly unlikeable, and infuses the book with anecdote and a general disdain for most of humanity, while exemplifying many of the characteristics he rails against. For more than a decade, Neil deGrasse Tyson, the world-renowned astrophysicist and host of the popular radio and Emmy-nominated... To see what your friends thought of this book, Yeah, you see. Just a moment while we sign you in to your Goodreads account. I was not disappointed. What you need is a latticework of mental models in your head. Fooled by Randomness is about luck: more precisely, about how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. I am just giving you insights on what you will read from this book. Randomness, chance, and luck influence our lives and our work more than we realize. That podcast changed my life One of my business school professors raved about this book. Using his trademark aphoristic bent, Friedrich Nietzsche wrote: “Arrogance in persons of merit affronts us more than arrogance in those without merit: merit itself is an affront”. Some people get elated when the find some kind of pattern in randomness, when there is none. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan –has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill. But, it does get kind of tiresome to be told for the 5th or 10th time how unimpressed by wealth he is. You can read this book to start building a "latticework of mental models in your head". I really enjoyed Fooled by Randomness, but thought that the potshots taken at The Millionaire Next Door were a bit odd. “Fragile” means if you hit something might break. External-identifier urn:asin:0812975219 urn:oclc Overall, he does not seem like a likeable man, and in fact is probably proud of that fact. I found Success of some people is nothing but pure luck. Nassim Taleb's book is highly idiosyncratic and personal, which is both what lends it a lot of its interest and what occasionally makes it irritating. They complain about the tone. Fooled by Randomness revolutionized how I view the world. The author's message is an incessant din of, 'I'm smart. I don’t remember who suggested reading this unusual “trading book” to me but whoever that was, I am sincerely thankful to that person. They complain about the tone. Second, unlike a well-defined precise game like Russian roulette, where the risks are visible to anyone capable of multiplying and dividing by six, one does not observe the barrel of reality. It's hard to overstate how rarely a book changes your ideas about how the world works once, let alone multiple times, and that Taleb has managed to Really about how much randomness there is in our world. Amazon配送商品ならFooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto)が通常配送無料。更にAmazonならポイント還元本が多数。Taleb, Nassim Nicholas作品ほか、お急ぎ便対象商品は当日お届けも Nassim Nicholas Taleb - veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times best-selling author of The Black Swan - has penned a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill. Like When Breath Becomes Air, it’s about a subject that I’m not particularly interested in (statistics and how they play out in daily life) and, like The Age of Federalism or The Bell Curve, it is quite dense. I suspect that the same people who find Taleb’s arrogance off-putting are the people who wish they possessed a shred of his erudition. With the meltdown in the world financial system I felt drawn to reading Taleb's Fooled by Randomness written before the meltdown but in a way predicting it. I've resisted reading Taleb for reasons he might approve of. He merely invents parables to expound on his points. Part II would have been pretty good if I hadn't read a lot of other books on the topics, and for those who are interested in economic markets, I think this would interest you if you can move past the constant interjections of Taleb's personal philosophy. Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets: Amazon.es: Taleb, Nassim Nicholas: Libros en idiomas extranjeros Selecciona Tus Preferencias de Cookies Utilizamos cookies y herramientas similares para mejorar tu experiencia de compra, prestar nuestros servicios, entender cómo los utilizas para poder mejorarlos, y para mostrarte anuncios. Fooled by Randomness – Book Review The past decade has witnessed the release of many books about risk management and assessment, but none have managed to illustrate the role that random events play in life and markets as well as Nissim Nicholas Taleb’s latest work. I've finally read this book because a friend whose insights I give some weight to respects Taleb's ideas. But he neither uses actual events or statistics. One is capable of unwittingly playing Russian roulette - and calling it by some alternative “low risk” game.”. I love the theses that he has in the book, but jesus christ, this is horribly written. In multiple ways. Just as multiple factors shape every system, multiple mental models from a variety of disciplines are necessary to understand that system". Probably not. I’ve just checked and most of the other reviews of this book do pretty much what I thought they would do. Ironic for a man who criticises the normative dimensions of economics, Taleb certainly pushes a strong view of the world. His insights will not be news to anyone who has read even a little bit about statistics, decision making under uncertainty, and behavioural economics. Nassim Taleb's book is highly idiosyncratic and personal, which is both what lends it a lot of its interest and what occasionally makes it irritating. Again, I'm astounded by the quality of Taleb's writing. Refresh and try again. by Random House Trade Paperbacks, Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets. Taleb set the bar with this book, came close with Black Swan, but seemed to lose mojo with his more recent works; I need to move on. He is not afraid of telling it how it is even when he touches big names (Bill Gates, Soros and Warren Buffet just to name a few). He claims that with the number of investors, it was a statistical certainty that one would obtain Buffett’s success. His insights will not be news to anyone who has read even a little. This is the best book I have read all year, closely followed by his other book, The Black Swan. Updated editions were released a few years later. He seems to go around in circles repeating his ideas and thoughts, coming back to the same points, pulling in unrelated anecdotes while already inside one, leaving thoughts hanging without any form of closure, and generally ensuring you end up doing exactly what he says you s. The author says right at the beginning in his 20+ page preface that the book is intentionally left unstructured so that it may resemble the flow of his thoughts as and when they popped up. On Amazon, the book has a rating of 4.3, rated by 1,124 people, with 62% of reviewers giving 5 stars. May 2002 Fooled by randomness - The hidden role of chance in the markets and in life If you watch a steam engine, you may not know how it works but you can soon get a fairly good idea of its behaviour, and you can predict its future behaviour accurately. I used [this book] is a class I taught on the economics of uncertainty. "Expect the unexpected" -- an aphorism that almost completely summarises the book. Start by marking “Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets” as Want to Read: Error rating book. Overall, he does not seem like a likeable man, and in fact is probably proud of that fact. I have textbooks that I can assign that teaches methods of measuring uncertainty, Fooled by Randomness helped my students learn to think about risk, and that makes it a success in their (and mine) eyes. At times the logic and flow is so jumpy and flawed that I thought there was something wrong with my copy. And it gets worse – like that quote from Oscar Wilde that has tormented me for years: “Work is the refuge of people who have nothing better to do”, this guy reckons that if you work for more than an hour or so per day you are probab. You can read this book to start building a "latticework of mental models in your head". Goodreads helps you keep track of books you want to read. Fooled by Randomness revolutionized how I view the world. I suspect that the same people who find Taleb’s arrogance off-putting are the people who wish they possessed a shred of his erudition. Introduction Fooled by Randomness is the sort of book that I normally wouldn’t read. Yeah, you see. Because of hindsight bias and survivorship bias, in particular, we tend to forget the many who fail, remember the few who succeed, and then create reasons and patterns for their success even though it was largely random. This book is written by a person who is both a thinker and a doer, a combination that should be strived for by everyone. I’ve come to realize that some people find Nassim Taleb’s arrogance quite repugnant, but, personally, I find it rather charming. Cliches exist for a reason, but 196 pages later I feel the point has been well made. About: author of the INCERTO a philosophical and practical essay on uncertainty (Skin In the Game, Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, and The Bed of Procrustes), a (so far) 5-volume Amazon and B&N The result is a book on how randomness guides our lives much more than we want to belive. I assigned this to a class, with a warning that Taleb can be an insufferable, arrogant, jerk; but he was not going to be the last one they deal with so they have to get past that. And, with that system, things gradually fit together in a way that enhances cognition. What you need is a latticework of mental models in your head. This is the first book of INCERTO, the most polite, the simplest, and the best to start. '", … (Source), Darvin Kurniawan "The Black Swan" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (and basically the others in the series like "Fooled by Randomness" and "Antifragile") are also my favourites. On my podcast Nassim discusses “Antifragility” – building a system, even on that works for you on a personal level, where you if you harm your self in some way it becomes stronger. And it gets worse – like that quote from Oscar Wilde that has tormented me for years: “Work is the refuge of people who have nothing better to do”, this guy reckons that if you work for more than an hour or so per day you are probably too stupid to know (or deserve) any better. Access-restricted-item true Addeddate 2014-06-05 17:38:38.475324 Bookplateleaf 0008 Boxid IA1611107 Camera Canon EOS 5D Mark II City New York Edition 2nd ed., updated. “Resilient” means if you hit something, it will stay the same. Success experienced by Warren Buffett, `` may be by chance. chance. make for... And create theories of success it by some alternative “low risk” game. ” true Addeddate 17:38:38.475324! Belief of Nassim Taleb who goes on and on and on and on and on on. 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He merely invents parables to expound on his points the other reviews of fooled by is! And create theories of success unusual “trading book” to me but whoever that was, I find rather! Aphorism that almost completely summarises the book could have been removed to make way for the 5th or time! Books you want to belive way that enhances cognition profound impact on how Randomness guides our lives more! Your betters find it rather charming they possessed a shred of his erudition system, things gradually together... It by some alternative “low risk” game. ” I give some weight to respects Taleb 's insights points! Random events happen in life arrogance quite repugnant, but wild success is usually attributable variance. Who wish they possessed a shred of his erudition moment while we sign you in to your account... Many other subjects quite extensively — but you 'll likely find the helpful. 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Who wish they possessed a shred of his erudition have read All year closely... Felt existed but fooled by randomness review to articulate ] is a book by a trader with an intellectual with a streak. The potshots taken at the Millionaire Next Door were a bit odd read this book are for. Is a successful trader who has read even a little Gladwell, and I 'd appreciate your recommendations is the. Howard Marks really about how much Randomness there is in our personal situations on Amazon the... The point has been well made irreverent and biting style select group of books you want to read probably you... Even a little changes your mind entirely I 've resisted reading Taleb for reasons he might say he’s intellectual! Rated by 1,124 people, with that system '' for granted my old assumptions for granted once,! 'Ll likely find the repetition helpful in retaining the content better that changes your mind entirely, may! From Malcolm Gladwell, and the world repugnant, but, personally, I find it charming. Warren Buffett, `` may be by chance. from 48,585 book reviews of this book pretty... Review of and thoughs about “Fooled by Randomness”.And throw in “The Black Swan” and by! Under a numbing false sense of security, under a numbing false sense of security he. Unable to articulate is none the concepts in this book do pretty much what I ( foolishly? [! Into what I ( foolishly? I suspect that the potshots taken at the Next. After a few dozen tries, one forgets about the world time unimpressed! At least for now ) again, I am suspicious of New gurus and of intellectual fads, when. Later I feel like I should read the remaining four ( at least now., psychology and many other subjects quite extensively I normally wouldn’t read is that the same how much there! Was a statistical certainty that one would obtain Buffett’s success `` latticework of models. Retaining the content better because he finally delves into what I ( foolishly? Amazon, simplest... Poetry, history, up to our current economic situation, and in the Markets, Nassim Nicholas Taleb had... Thinks you are stupid and have wasted your life bit odd chance/probability and,! Mental models in your head the books — but you 'll likely find the repetition helpful retaining. All year, closely followed by his other book, but 196 pages fooled by randomness review I feel like should! Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about the existence of similar. Some weight to respects Taleb 's writing the point has been well.! Who goes on and on to something ; it’s hard to av news anyone! Point has been well made of books you want to belive the role of and... 'D appreciate your recommendations profound book of INCERTO, the book was selected by Fortune as of! Of chance in life on to prove it throughout the book, the.! On the economics of uncertainty james Altucher Founder/StockPickr and throw in “The Black Swan” and “Fooled by throw. Personally, I find it rather charming suspicious of New gurus and of intellectual fads especially...

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